Leituras do dia: Brexitânia Revisitada

1 – The Economic Consequences of Leaving the EU: the Final Report of the Cer Commission on Brexit 2016 (John Springford, Simon Tilford, Christian Odendahl, Philip McCann) “However, EU immigration is good for the public finances, as immigrants pay more in taxes than they receive in public spending. There are some costs that arise from higher demand for housing and public services. But current levels of immigration help Britain to deal with the costs of an ageing population, by replacing retiring workers, and by raising more taxes to pay for health and pension costs. Since hostility to immigration is pushing Britain towards the exit door, it is likely that the UK would restrict immigration from the EU upon exit. This would require Britain to increase taxes or cut spending.” http://www.cer.org.uk/publications/archive/report/2016/economic-consequences-leaving-eu-final-report-cer-commission-brexit 2 – The man in charge of Brexit has no idea what he’s doing (Ian Dunt) “But when he went on to answer questions from MPs, he suddenly veered off script. Perhaps he was suffering the emotional incontinence of political victory. Or perhaps he simply does not have the mental agility to stick to an agreed policy. Either way, it was soon clear Davis was going much further than Theresa May’s carefully formulated statements earlier in the week.” http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2016/09/07/it-s-now-clear-david-davis-has-no-idea-what-he-s-doing 3 – Theresa May refuses to reveal her Brexit negotiating hand ‘prematurely’ (dailymail.co.uk) “The Prime Minister’s official spokeswoman said:

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A maldição do ceteris paribus

A minha crónica de ontem no Público. “Um exemplo já clássico é o do debate sobre o euro, ilustrado nos últimos dias por uma (de resto muito interessante) entrevista a Joseph Stiglitz onde este economista defende que “custa mais a Portugal ficar no euro do que sair”. Stiglitz não é só um prémio Nobel; é um dos maiores intelectuais do mundo e tem escrito algumas das melhores coisas sobre desigualdade, globalização ou a crise financeira. Isso não o impede de cair, talvez sem se dar conta, na maldição do ceteris paribus. Vejamos: Stiglitz não defende na entrevista que Portugal deva também sair da União Europeia ou do mercado único, certo? Isso acontece por uma razão simples: caso Portugal saísse da UE ou do mercado único as contas para a saída do euro mudariam significativamente. Um mero exemplo: Portugal poderia desvalorizar a sua nova moeda mas não teria para onde exportar os seus produtos sem custos tarifários e alfandegários adicionais.” Leia mais aqui: http://www.publico.pt/n1743373

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